Think exponential

Overview overview link

The pace of change has picked up. We used to experience periods of stability between disruptions. Change is now perpetual and pervasive. How do we build the systems, tools, and cultures that meet the changing needs of our communities today and into the future? We do it by thinking exponentially.

Problem problem link

While the world experiences exponential change, our public institutions change more slowly. This creates an ever-widening gap between society’s needs and government’s services.

Solution solution link

There is no one solution to addressing the exponential gap. There are thousands. These thousands of solutions come from practitioners trying ideas far outside the box and sharing results for others to learn from and build on.

The network of thousands of practitioners working to address the changing world creates systemic exponential thinking. This requires our organizations to be more flexible to try new ideas while working to develop systems for sharing results across organizations.

Context context link

Exponential thinking is really a mental model. It’s a way of thinking beyond what exists right now and expanding the realm of possibilities.

It also doesn’t necessarily rely on innovations. Most often it’s rooted in the combination of two or more existing ideas in a new way.

The printing press is a good example. Gutenberg merged two ideas that had each been around for a few hundred years: movable type and the grape press for winemaking. This novel application of well-known tools accelerated societal change across the world by radically altering the speed and volume with which ideas could be stored and shared.

Mixing and matching mixing and matching link

For the individual, thinking exponentially means breaking out of the linear tracks we usually operate within. This type of thinking comes naturally to children. Watch them mix and match toys, food, or clothes to see what the results are. Each new piece of knowledge exponentially expands what is possible for them.

This is usually trained out of us so we can put the square block through the square hole. However, we can take steps to bring this thinking back into our lives.

Apply exponential thinking apply exponential thinking link

We can facilitate this type of thought by expanding our range of interests or expanding our network. Both approaches introduce new ideas for us to play with and create opportunities for novel thoughts, projects, or solutions. Not all of these mash-ups will be worth pursuing. Just like in childhood, many concoctions should never be served during a holiday dinner. But occasionally something remarkable happens.

On the organizational level, exponential thinking can occur closer to its true definition because of the network effect of many people working together. This collective exponential thinking can come from any group of affiliated individuals — be it a club, neighborhood, business, or government.

The private sector has long embraced the benefits of exponential thinking. It creates a competitive advantage for gaining customers and donors. This incentive helps businesses tolerate the risk of experimentation.

Unfortunately, public bodies have the opposite incentives. By nature, we are risk-averse. We do our best to steward public resources. No staff or elected officials want to be responsible for misuse of resources. This risk aversion stands in opposition to our obligation to address the exponential gap.

To meet this challenge, the public sector needs to create environments for exponential thinking without threatening public infrastructure, data, and security. While there are many ways to do this, agencies can facilitate this by focusing on three steps:

1. Encourage creativity from staff and the community through non-traditional practices like Human-Centered Design, Liberating Structures, and Strategic Doing.
2. Expand networks by increasing staff interactions across silos, organizations, fields, and geography.
3. Gradually build the organization’s risk tolerance through small steps — people need to feel psychologically safe in order to experiment.

The multifaceted nature of exponential thinking in the public sphere is challenging to overcome. It challenges individuals. It challenges institutions. These challenges are uncomfortable.

It’s crucial to remember: Learning and growth only happen outside the comfort zone.

Mantras mantras link

• Think exponential
• Expand your comfort zone

Checklist checklist link

• Make time to learn new things outside of, but relevant to, your field.
• Expand and maintain a network of adjacent professionals.
• Help others, especially in other silos, address their challenges.
• Ask others outside your sphere to help frame or solve a challenge with you.
• Define goals before defining a problem or solution.

Questions to ask questions to ask link

• Are we checking a box or making a difference?
• What underlying assumptions can and should be challenged?
• Is the solution or opportunity we’re working on adaptable or static?
• How have others, inside and outside my field, addressed a similar challenge or opportunity?
• How will the next generation, or seventh, wish we acted?
• How can we share our successes and failures for others to learn from and improve on?

Learn more learn more link

• The Exponential Age, Azeem Azhar14
• The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence, Tim Urban15
• Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari16
• Future Perfect: The Case for Progress in a Networked Age, Steven Johnson17
• Collective Genius, Greg Brandeau, Linda Hill, Kent Lineback, and Emily Truelove18